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Mar292014

2014 Final Projected Standings

 

Final 2014 Projected Standings

On this, the eve of Opening Day, (albeit also the morning of the Dodgers third game of the season) I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB's 2014 season.  Thanks to 'friend-of-the-blog' and Fox Sports 1 television personality, Todd Furman, I've learned that the LVH futures are updated daily at http://www.donbestadvantage.com/lvh-sportsbook-future-odds/.  The over/under column (below) reflects the current (and presumably final) market as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas.  Those with a calculator might note that the sum of the LVH wins totals 2,444.  That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season.  The difference is the largest in the three years I've observed, and suggests, as in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic and they've collectively bid up certain teams. 

In compiling the final projected standings below, I have ensured that total wins equal total losses and total runs scored equal total runs allowed.  Any modifications to the original essays are the result of injuries suffered in Spring Training, roster changes, or any other developments which could affect playing time as well as rounding corrections.

A couple of items to note:  Los Angeles and Arizona are still on the board despite kicking off their seasons last week.  LA moved up 1 and Arizona down 1.  I understand why that happened but . .  it sure seems like that Dodogers number is attractive if you're Vegas based and are bearish on the Dodgers. Some of the markets  have moved since the original essays, notably Oakland's.  Now in the AL West, the Angels look just as attractive as an 'under' play.  I'm sticking with my original call and hope that those who read it two weeks ago (or heard me discuss the call on Chad Millmiabn's podcast at the beginning of the month) got a more favorable price.

The track record for these projections is quite strong and, frankly, it's not a secret anymore.  The over/under calls went 6-3 in 2011 (disclosed, after the fact, in my book) and as published on these very pages, 8-4 in 2012 and 8-2 last year.  Even more satisfying to me, my projections had a smaller forecasting error than any other system or web site that I could find each of the last three year.  As I say, that's not a secret anymore as Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) wrote an article at Stats in the Wild comparing 7 different projection systems in 2013 and tallied the results using proper forecasting error metrics.  (You can read it here: http://statsinthewild.com/2013/09/30/stat-pundit-rankings-mlb-win-over-unders/) As a result, there are a number of people tracking this year's projections.

I'm proud of my track record, love that some readers have cashed winning tickets in prior years, and welcome another year of competition versus the most sophisticated model builders around.  For anyone investing in my picks this year, know that I've got skin in the game too, not only financially but reputationally.

Finally, thanks to everyone who reaches out on e-mail and Twitter.  I'm well behind responding, especially to the piece on analytics in the financial industry.  I love the interaction and, unlike some who complain about the medium, have had nothing but a wonderful experience with people on Twitter.  I look forward to more of that as this year goes on and despite thinking I wouldn't be doing another year of projections as recently as January, now can't wait for the season to begin.

To my wife, who puts up with this nonsense annually, I have a pre-emptive answer for you when you walk into our play room for the next six months, see me in the fetal position with the TV tuned to yet another Mariners game and ask, "Are you rooting for Seattle?"  In the words of Marc Cohn, from Walking in Memphis, "Ma'am, I am tonight!"

 

Projected 2014 Standings

 
                 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

           

EAST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Tampa Bay

 

90

72

712

627

88.5

 

Boston

 

87

75

3

750

689

87.5

 

Toronto

 

80

82

10

721

736

80

 

New York

 

79

83

11

699

721

86

Under

Baltimore

 

79

83

11

697

714

78.5

 
                 

CENTRAL

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Detroit

 

86

76

715

666

90

Under 

Cleveland

 

84

78

2

700

673

81.5

 

Kansas City

 

81

81

5

686

684

82.5

 

Chicago

 

73

89

13

674

746

75.5

 

Minnesota

 

70

92

16

651

757

70.5

 

                 

WEST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Seattle

86

76

718

668

80.5

Over

Texas

 

83

79

3

759

730

86.5

 

Oakland

 

83

79

3

707

684

87.5

Under 

Los Angeles

83

79

3

722

701

87.5

 

Houston

 

65

97

21

630

788

63

 

                 

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

           

EAST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Washington

93

69

700

600

90

Over 

Atlanta

 

84

78

9

653

632

87

 

New York

 

78

84

15

620

650

74.5

 

Philadelphia

77

85

16

630

664

74

 

Miami

 

70

92

23

596

690

70

 
                 

CENTRAL

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

St. Louis

 

89

73

672

603

91.5

 

Cincinnati

 

88

74

1

674

616

84

Over

Milwaukee

 

80

82

9

663

670

79.5

 

Pittsburgh

 

77

85

12

633

669

83.5

Under 

Chicago

 

76

86

13

630

674

69.5

Over

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 
                 

WEST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Los Angeles

 

91

71

687

603

95

 

Colorado

 

81

81    

10

764

761

76

Over 

San Francisco

80

82

11

635

640

85.5

Under

San Diego

80

82

11

625

632

78

 

Arizona

 

77

85

14

677

712

77








 

 

Pennant and Award Winners:

World Series: Washington over Tampa 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

NL CY Young: Madison Bumgarner

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young Felix Hernandez

 

Mop Up Duty:

Joe Peta is the author of Trading Bases, A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball*  (*) Not necessarily in that order, a Dutton Books/Penguin (U.S.A.) publication currently available wherever books are sold.  Here are three on-line booksellers you can currently choose from:

http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Gambling-Baseball-Necessarily/dp/0525953647/

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/trading-bases-joe-peta/1111308063?ean=9780525953647

http://www.indiebound.org/book/9780525953647

He is also the author of Trading Bases, the Newsletter, a companion piece to the book.  If you have been forwarded this issue and would like to be placed on the mailing list, please send an e-mail to tradingbases@gmail.com

All newsletter archives are located at http://tradingbases.squarespace.com

You can follow me on Twitter here:  @MagicRatSF

If you want to be taken off the e-mail list, please let me know at tradingbases@gmail.com

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Reader Comments (1)

4-5-1 record on those under/over picks. Both World Series teams listed as 3rd place finishers. AL East and West both basically upside down. No one wonder you went back to Wall Street. This system of yours, like your book, is bunk.

October 28, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterHappyGuy

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