2014 Final Projected Standings

Final 2014 Projected Standings

On this, the eve of Opening Day, (albeit also the morning of the Dodgers third game of the season) I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB's 2014 season.  Thanks to 'friend-of-the-blog' and Fox Sports 1 television personality, Todd Furman, I've learned that the LVH futures are updated daily at http://www.donbestadvantage.com/lvh-sportsbook-future-odds/.  The over/under column (below) reflects the current (and presumably final) market as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas.  Those with a calculator might note that the sum of the LVH wins totals 2,444.  That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season.  The difference is the largest in the three years I've observed, and suggests, as in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic and they've collectively bid up certain teams. 

In compiling the final projected standings below, I have ensured that total wins equal total losses and total runs scored equal total runs allowed.  Any modifications to the original essays are the result of injuries suffered in Spring Training, roster changes, or any other developments which could affect playing time as well as rounding corrections.

A couple of items to note:  Los Angeles and Arizona are still on the board despite kicking off their seasons last week.  LA moved up 1 and Arizona down 1.  I understand why that happened but . .  it sure seems like that Dodogers number is attractive if you're Vegas based and are bearish on the Dodgers. Some of the markets  have moved since the original essays, notably Oakland's.  Now in the AL West, the Angels look just as attractive as an 'under' play.  I'm sticking with my original call and hope that those who read it two weeks ago (or heard me discuss the call on Chad Millmiabn's podcast at the beginning of the month) got a more favorable price.

The track record for these projections is quite strong and, frankly, it's not a secret anymore.  The over/under calls went 6-3 in 2011 (disclosed, after the fact, in my book) and as published on these very pages, 8-4 in 2012 and 8-2 last year.  Even more satisfying to me, my projections had a smaller forecasting error than any other system or web site that I could find each of the last three year.  As I say, that's not a secret anymore as Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) wrote an article at Stats in the Wild comparing 7 different projection systems in 2013 and tallied the results using proper forecasting error metrics.  (You can read it here: http://statsinthewild.com/2013/09/30/stat-pundit-rankings-mlb-win-over-unders/) As a result, there are a number of people tracking this year's projections.

I'm proud of my track record, love that some readers have cashed winning tickets in prior years, and welcome another year of competition versus the most sophisticated model builders around.  For anyone investing in my picks this year, know that I've got skin in the game too, not only financially but reputationally.

Finally, thanks to everyone who reaches out on e-mail and Twitter.  I'm well behind responding, especially to the piece on analytics in the financial industry.  I love the interaction and, unlike some who complain about the medium, have had nothing but a wonderful experience with people on Twitter.  I look forward to more of that as this year goes on and despite thinking I wouldn't be doing another year of projections as recently as January, now can't wait for the season to begin.

To my wife, who puts up with this nonsense annually, I have a pre-emptive answer for you when you walk into our play room for the next six months, see me in the fetal position with the TV tuned to yet another Mariners game and ask, "Are you rooting for Seattle?"  In the words of Marc Cohn, from Walking in Memphis, "Ma'am, I am tonight!"

Projected 2014 Standings
AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
Tampa Bay		90	72	–	712	627	88.5
Boston		87	75	3	750	689	87.5
Toronto		80	82	10	721	736	80
New York		79	83	11	699	721	86	Under
Baltimore		79	83	11	697	714	78.5
CENTRAL		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
Detroit		86	76	–	715	666	90	Under
Cleveland		84	78	2	700	673	81.5
Kansas City		81	81	5	686	684	82.5
Chicago		73	89	13	674	746	75.5
Minnesota		70	92	16	651	757	70.5
WEST		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
Seattle		86	76	–	718	668	80.5	Over
Texas		83	79	3	759	730	86.5
Oakland		83	79	3	707	684	88.5	Under
Los Angeles		83	79	3	722	701	87.5
Houston		65	97	21	630	788	63
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
Washington		93	69	–	700	600	90	Over
Atlanta		84	78	9	653	632	87
New York		78	84	15	620	650	74.5
Philadelphia		77	85	16	630	664	74
Miami		70	92	23	596	690	70
CENTRAL		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
St. Louis		89	73	–	672	603	91.5
Cincinnati		88	74	1	674	616	84	Over
Milwaukee		80	82	9	663	670	79.5
Pittsburgh		77	85	12	633	669	83.5	Under
Chicago		76	86	13	630	674	69.5	Over
WEST		W	L	GB	RS	RA	Final o/u Line	Pick
Los Angeles		91	71	–	687	603	95
Colorado		81	81	10	764	761	76	Over
San Francisco		80	82	11	635	640	85.5	Under
San Diego		80	82	11	625	632	78
Arizona		77	85	14	677	712	77

Pennant and Award Winners:

World Series: Washington over Tampa 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

NL CY Young: Madison Bumgarner

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young Felix Hernandez

Mop Up Duty:

Joe Peta is the author of Trading Bases, A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball*  (*) Not necessarily in that order, a Dutton Books/Penguin (U.S.A.) publication currently available wherever books are sold.  Here are three on-line booksellers you can currently choose from:

http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Gambling-Baseball-Necessarily/dp/0525953647/

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/trading-bases-joe-peta/1111308063?ean=9780525953647

http://www.indiebound.org/book/9780525953647

He is also the author of Trading Bases, the Newsletter, a companion piece to the book.  If you have been forwarded this issue and would like to be placed on the mailing list, please send an e-mail to tradingbases@gmail.com

All newsletter archives are located at http://tradingbases.squarespace.com

You can follow me on Twitter here:  @MagicRatSF

If you want to be taken off the e-mail list, please let me know at tradingbases@gmail.com

Comments

[HappyGuy]

4-5-1 record on those under/over picks. Both World Series teams listed as 3rd place finishers. AL East and West both basically upside down. No one wonder you went back to Wall Street. This system of yours, like your book, is bunk.