Final 2014 Projected Standings
On this, the eve of Opening Day, (albeit also the morning of the Dodgers third game of the season) I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB's 2014 season. Thanks to 'friend-of-the-blog' and Fox Sports 1 television personality, Todd Furman, I've learned that the LVH futures are updated daily at http://www.donbestadvantage.com/lvh-sportsbook-future-odds/. The over/under column (below) reflects the current (and presumably final) market as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas. Those with a calculator might note that the sum of the LVH wins totals 2,444. That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season. The difference is the largest in the three years I've observed, and suggests, as in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic and they've collectively bid up certain teams.
In compiling the final projected standings below, I have ensured that total wins equal total losses and total runs scored equal total runs allowed. Any modifications to the original essays are the result of injuries suffered in Spring Training, roster changes, or any other developments which could affect playing time as well as rounding corrections.
A couple of items to note: Los Angeles and Arizona are still on the board despite kicking off their seasons last week. LA moved up 1 and Arizona down 1. I understand why that happened but . . it sure seems like that Dodogers number is attractive if you're Vegas based and are bearish on the Dodgers. Some of the markets have moved since the original essays, notably Oakland's. Now in the AL West, the Angels look just as attractive as an 'under' play. I'm sticking with my original call and hope that those who read it two weeks ago (or heard me discuss the call on Chad Millmiabn's podcast at the beginning of the month) got a more favorable price.
The track record for these projections is quite strong and, frankly, it's not a secret anymore. The over/under calls went 6-3 in 2011 (disclosed, after the fact, in my book) and as published on these very pages, 8-4 in 2012 and 8-2 last year. Even more satisfying to me, my projections had a smaller forecasting error than any other system or web site that I could find each of the last three year. As I say, that's not a secret anymore as Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) wrote an article at Stats in the Wild comparing 7 different projection systems in 2013 and tallied the results using proper forecasting error metrics. (You can read it here: http://statsinthewild.com/2013/09/30/stat-pundit-rankings-mlb-win-over-unders/) As a result, there are a number of people tracking this year's projections.
I'm proud of my track record, love that some readers have cashed winning tickets in prior years, and welcome another year of competition versus the most sophisticated model builders around. For anyone investing in my picks this year, know that I've got skin in the game too, not only financially but reputationally.
Finally, thanks to everyone who reaches out on e-mail and Twitter. I'm well behind responding, especially to the piece on analytics in the financial industry. I love the interaction and, unlike some who complain about the medium, have had nothing but a wonderful experience with people on Twitter. I look forward to more of that as this year goes on and despite thinking I wouldn't be doing another year of projections as recently as January, now can't wait for the season to begin.
To my wife, who puts up with this nonsense annually, I have a pre-emptive answer for you when you walk into our play room for the next six months, see me in the fetal position with the TV tuned to yet another Mariners game and ask, "Are you rooting for Seattle?" In the words of Marc Cohn, from Walking in Memphis, "Ma'am, I am tonight!"
|
Projected 2014 Standings |
||||||||
|
AMERICAN LEAGUE |
||||||||
|
EAST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Tampa Bay |
90 |
72 |
– |
712 |
627 |
88.5 |
|
|
|
Boston |
87 |
75 |
3 |
750 |
689 |
87.5 |
||
|
Toronto |
80 |
82 |
10 |
721 |
736 |
80 |
|
|
|
New York |
79 |
83 |
11 |
699 |
721 |
86 |
Under |
|
|
Baltimore |
79 |
83 |
11 |
697 |
714 |
78.5 |
||
|
CENTRAL |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Detroit |
86 |
76 |
– |
715 |
666 |
90 |
Under |
|
|
Cleveland |
84 |
78 |
2 |
700 |
673 |
81.5 |
|
|
|
Kansas City |
81 |
81 |
5 |
686 |
684 |
82.5 |
|
|
|
Chicago |
73 |
89 |
13 |
674 |
746 |
75.5 |
||
|
Minnesota |
70 |
92 |
16 |
651 |
757 |
70.5 |
|
|
|
WEST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Seattle |
86 |
76 |
– |
718 |
668 |
80.5 |
Over |
|
|
Texas |
83 |
79 |
3 |
759 |
730 |
86.5 |
||
|
Oakland |
83 |
79 |
3 |
707 |
684 |
88.5 |
Under |
|
|
Los Angeles |
83 |
79 |
3 |
722 |
701 |
87.5 |
||
|
Houston |
65 |
97 |
21 |
630 |
788 |
63 |
|
|
|
NATIONAL LEAGUE |
||||||||
|
EAST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Washington |
93 |
69 |
– |
700 |
600 |
90 |
Over | |
|
Atlanta |
84 |
78 |
9 |
653 |
632 |
87 |
||
|
New York |
78 |
84 |
15 |
620 |
650 |
74.5 |
|
|
|
Philadelphia |
77 |
85 |
16 |
630 |
664 |
74 |
||
|
Miami |
70 |
92 |
23 |
596 |
690 |
70 |
||
|
CENTRAL |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
St. Louis |
89 |
73 |
– |
672 |
603 |
91.5 |
|
|
|
Cincinnati |
88 |
74 |
1 |
674 |
616 |
84 |
Over |
|
|
Milwaukee |
80 |
82 |
9 |
663 |
670 |
79.5 |
||
|
Pittsburgh |
77 |
85 |
12 |
633 |
669 |
83.5 |
Under |
|
|
Chicago |
76 |
86 |
13 |
630 |
674 |
69.5 |
Over |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
WEST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Los Angeles |
91 |
71 |
– |
687 |
603 |
95 |
||
|
Colorado |
81 |
81 |
10 |
764 |
761 |
76 |
Over |
|
|
San Francisco |
80 |
82 |
11 |
635 |
640 |
85.5 |
Under |
|
|
San Diego |
80 |
82 |
11 |
625 |
632 |
78 |
|
|
|
Arizona |
77 |
85 |
14 |
677 |
712 |
77 |
||
|
|
Pennant and Award Winners:
World Series: Washington over Tampa
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL CY Young: Madison Bumgarner
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young Felix Hernandez
Mop Up Duty:
Joe Peta is the author of Trading Bases, A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball* (*) Not necessarily in that order, a Dutton Books/Penguin (U.S.A.) publication currently available wherever books are sold. Here are three on-line booksellers you can currently choose from:
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Gambling-Baseball-Necessarily/dp/0525953647/
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/trading-bases-joe-peta/1111308063?ean=9780525953647
http://www.indiebound.org/book/9780525953647
He is also the author of Trading Bases, the Newsletter, a companion piece to the book. If you have been forwarded this issue and would like to be placed on the mailing list, please send an e-mail to tradingbases@gmail.com
All newsletter archives are located at http://tradingbases.squarespace.com
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