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To my eye, the Arizona Diamondbacks ended the 2012 season very much like the New York Mets – a team much closer to making the postseason than their final record indicated. It’s hard for me to understand how the front office could look at last year’s team and feel much different about it than they did the year before when they made the playoffs. After all, last year’s squad scored as many runs as it did the 2011 unit (actually 3 more) and only gave up 26 more. Beneath the surface, there was more evidence of progression, not regression: The 2012 team hit for a higher average, got on base at a higher rate, and had a higher slugging percentage. On the mound, the year-over-year improvement, yes, improvement, in 2012 was even more striking. The staff struck out batters at a much higher rate, walked them less frequently and induced way more ground balls – an important factor in Arizona. Yet they gave up more runs. Why? Because of the cruel mistress that is cluster luck.


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