<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!--Generated by Squarespace V5 Site Server v5.13.159 (http://www.squarespace.com) on Sat, 25 May 2013 01:44:17 GMT--><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"><title>Blog</title><subtitle>Blog</subtitle><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/</id><link rel="alternate" type="application/xhtml+xml" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/"/><link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/atom.xml"/><updated>2013-05-02T16:30:48Z</updated><generator uri="http://five.squarespace.com/" version="Squarespace V5 Site Server v5.13.159 (http://www.squarespace.com)">Squarespace</generator><entry><title>Oh Brother!</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/5/2/oh-brother.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/5/2/oh-brother.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-05-02T16:22:26Z</published><updated>2013-05-02T16:22:26Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[The most prominent way Doug differed from the family was in his refusal to root for the Phillies.  Based on the first card out of the wrapper of his first pack of baseball cards, Doug took one look at a 1974 Topps card of Steve Garvey and announced that the Los Angeles Dodgers were his favorite team.  For the next couple of years it just seemed odd that Doug checked the morning paper for West Coast box scores, covered his room in Dodgers paraphernalia and wore a blue LA baseball cap around the neighborhood.  It became downright grating after the Dodgers eliminated the Phillies two years in a row in the NLCS to advance to the World Series.  In frustration, after the second defeat in 1978, I defaced something in our house connected to the Dodgers. .  . but completely forgot about it shortly thereafter.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>Game Theory: Baker Cooks up a Mess</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/17/game-theory-baker-cooks-up-a-mess.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/17/game-theory-baker-cooks-up-a-mess.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-04-17T14:40:47Z</published><updated>2013-04-17T14:40:47Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[There’s an expression in sabermetric circles that sums up a starting pitcher’s erosion in effectiveness the longer he stays in the game:  “A team’s worst pitcher is the one who is facing an opposing team’s lineup for the third time.”  Unlike some adages this one isn’t exactly true.  For one, while he’s a rare exception, Justin Verlander actually does have better results as the game goes on.  Even tossing outliers like Verlander aside, the statement itself is a bit of overkill.  A team’s ace becomes something like a league-average pitcher the third time through the lineup, the second best pitcher is something like a #4 starter, and so on.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>Opening Day 2013, An Appreciation</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/1/opening-day-2013-an-appreciation.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/1/opening-day-2013-an-appreciation.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-04-01T04:26:04Z</published><updated>2013-04-01T04:26:04Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[I hope you enjoyed the 2013 season preview over the last six weeks.  I thank every one for reading and their comments – even those from fans of the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves who have given me flak for my relatively downbeat previews.  The summaries are data-driven, quantitative-based previews and I certainly understand the passion of fans – channeling Charlie Brown – who are more or less ordering me to “tell your statistics to shut up.”]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Final Projected Standings</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-final-projected-standings.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-final-projected-standings.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-31T03:29:17Z</published><updated>2013-03-31T03:29:17Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[On this, the morning of Houston's inaugural game as an American League team and on the eve of Opening Day, I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB's 2013 season.  Thanks to my friends at BeyondTheBets.com and Dave Tuley, a long-time chronicler of the sports betting scene in Las Vegas, the over/under column (below) reflects the current (and presumably final) market as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas.  Those with a calculator might note that the sum of the LVH wins totals 2,435.  That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season.  The difference is smaller than last year but still, as in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic and they've collectively bid up certain teams.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Chicago Cubs</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-chicago-cubs.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-chicago-cubs.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-30T19:52:51Z</published><updated>2013-03-30T19:52:51Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[All of this leads to the following conclusion: Bullpens that post terrible results usually aren’t as bad as the results might indicate.  In other words, it’s hard to expect a bullpen to be awful.  If a rule is strengthened by the presence of an exception, well then I guess this is the only time anyone is going to refer to the 2012 Chicago Cubs as exceptional.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-pittsburgh-pirates.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/30/2013-preview-pittsburgh-pirates.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-30T14:33:21Z</published><updated>2013-03-30T14:33:21Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[The Pirates fooled me last year and maybe it’s because I wanted to get fooled.  Outside of the Phillies somehow managing to wrest control of the NL East back from the Nationals, this is the outlook I hope is the most inaccurate to the downside.  For the second consecutive year, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team with the unfathomable twenty-year run of under .500 finishes, had themselves in the thick of a pennant race well into August.  After beating St. Louis 6-3 in a thrilling Sunday afternoon-into-late-night 19-inning game, exactly three-fourths of the 2012 season was over and the Pirates were 13 games over .500 and leading the pack for the second Wild Card berth.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Milwaukee Brewers</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/29/2013-preview-milwaukee-brewers.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/29/2013-preview-milwaukee-brewers.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-29T15:16:43Z</published><updated>2013-03-29T15:16:43Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[Last year had to be both pleasing and depressing for Brewers fans.  Pleasing because the team that lost Prince Fielder to free agency still finished as the highest-scoring team in the National League.  Depressing because while the average bullpen in the major leagues had an ERA of 3.77, the relievers for the Brewers had a 4.66 ERA – the worst in baseball.  If Milwaukee had simply had an average bullpen, over the 512 innings pitched, they would have given up 51 less runs.  51 runs equate to something between five and six wins and the Brewers finished five games out of the final wild card spot.  It does seem a shame that they wasted a second straight MVP-caliber season from Ryan Braun and traded away Zack Greinke with two months left in the season all because the bullpen was horrendous.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Cincinnati Reds</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/28/2013-preview-cincinnati-reds.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/28/2013-preview-cincinnati-reds.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-28T17:02:12Z</published><updated>2013-03-28T17:02:12Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[161 games.  A lot went right for Cincinnati in a lot of different ways but the most obvious element is represented by 161 games.  That’s the number of starts made by the Reds starting rotation.  How rare is that in this day and age?  272 pitchers started an MLB game in 2012 which means each team had an average of a little more than 9 different pitchers start a game.  There were only 73 pitchers in all of baseball who started at least 30 games and the Reds had 5 of them.  Stated another way, the average team’s 5th starting pitcher only started 14 games and the top 5 averaged 27.5  For the Reds, that means they got 25 more starts from the Opening Day rotation than the average MLB team.  That’s incredibly fortunate health for a team’s pitching staff, and it’s also incredibly valuable because 25 starts from replacement level pitchers are <.500 propositions.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/27/2013-preview-st-louis-cardinals.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/27/2013-preview-st-louis-cardinals.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-27T17:26:24Z</published><updated>2013-03-27T17:26:24Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[Masked by the nine games they finished behind the Cincinnati Reds during the regular season, the Cardinals near-run to a second National League pennant (and perhaps a second-straight World Championship) seemed to surprise fans, especially given the stunningly dramatic way they ousted the Washington Nationals in the NLDS.  However, on a restated runs basis – as shown above – stripping out all the effects of cluster luck the Cardinals were the second best team in the National League during the regular season behind only Washington.  And once Washington decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg, you could certainly argue the two-game spread they enjoyed in that ranking completely disappeared.]]></summary></entry><entry><title>2013 Preview: Colorado Rockies</title><id>http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/26/2013-preview-colorado-rockies.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/26/2013-preview-colorado-rockies.html"/><author><name>Joe Peta</name></author><published>2013-03-26T17:03:46Z</published><updated>2013-03-26T17:03:46Z</updated><summary type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[I wasn’t going to write a lot about the Rockies.  A reader took exception to my assertion that, because San Francisco was the highest scoring team in the National League over 81 games on the road (and second in all of baseball), the Giants therefore had a great offense.  (Or, at the very least, it was vastly underrated and unfairly maligned because of the peculiar home environment that they play half their games in.)  My reader disagreed.  The Giants, I was told, only scored a lot of road runs because they had tremendous success at Coors Field and they get to play there a lot because the Rockies are in the NL West too.]]></summary></entry></feed>