Final 2012 Projected Standings
Dateline: Las Vegas.
Coming to you live from the LVH, the hotel formerly known as the Las Vegas Hilton, I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB’s 2012 season. The over/under column reflects the current (and presumably final) market on the eve of Opening Day, as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas. (Those interested in the details of market making, note that the total wins for all teams total 2,450 ½. That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season. I asked LVH’s management about this and they told me that the inflated total reflects the predominance of “over” bets they’ve taken this spring. As in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic. Unlike the stock market though, there is no intrinsic reason for the participants to be collectively optimistic. Nothing changes the fact that there are only 2,430 wins to be had. As such, by default, there is value on the unders.)
When I was in 5th grade, the local paper in West Chester, PA printed an NFL preview piece with a predicted record for each team. Being a sports-obsessed adolescent, I copied the projected standings down and hung them on a wall in my bedroom. As I copied the previews into a notebook, I noticed that the total wins for all the NFL teams didn’t equal total losses. I figured this had to be a mistake so I wrote a letter to the newspaper pointing out the discrepancy.
There were two unsurprising footnotes to that story. One, I never got a response from the newspaper and two, I majored in accounting and became a Certified Public Accountant upon graduation.
Since I don’t want to be called out by a teenager, in compiling the final projected standings below, I have ensured that total wins equal total losses and total runs scored equal total runs allowed. Any modifications to the original essays are the result of injuries suffered in Spring Training, roster changes, or any other developments which could affect playing time. For instance, a change to the Phillies’ runs scored due to an injury to Chase Utley, needs to flow through the rest of the league’s runs allowed calculation. Otherwise there were no changes to the calculations or the underlying logic.
This concludes the preview of the 2012 season. Tomorrow I’ll relay some thoughts on Opening Day and then return a couple of times a month with updates as the season progresses.
|
Projected 2012 Standings |
||||||||
|
AMERICAN LEAGUE |
||||||||
|
EAST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Boston |
92 |
70 |
784 |
679 |
88.5 |
|||
|
New York |
90 |
72 |
2 |
811 |
717 |
93 |
||
|
Tampa Bay |
81 |
81 |
11 |
718 |
723 |
88 |
Under |
|
|
Toronto |
80 |
82 |
12 |
703 |
710 |
83 |
||
|
Baltimore |
71 |
91 |
21 |
692 |
796 |
69 |
||
|
CENTRAL |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Detroit |
86 |
76 |
747 |
700 |
93 |
Under |
||
|
Cleveland |
82 |
80 |
4 |
719 |
708 |
78.5 |
||
|
Chicago |
82 |
80 |
4 |
662 |
657 |
75 |
Over |
|
|
Minnesota |
78 |
84 |
8 |
681 |
711 |
73.5 |
||
|
Kansas City |
70 |
92 |
16 |
658 |
764 |
79 |
Under |
|
|
WEST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Los Angeles |
91 |
71 |
770 |
675 |
93 |
|||
|
Texas |
88 |
74 |
3 |
767 |
700 |
92 |
||
|
Oakland |
79 |
83 |
12 |
680 |
701 |
71.5 |
Over |
|
|
Seattle |
74 |
88 |
17 |
662 |
725 |
72 |
||
|
NATIONAL LEAGUE |
||||||||
|
EAST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Philadelphia |
91 |
71 |
696 |
610 |
92 |
|||
|
Miami |
84 |
78 |
7 |
747 |
717 |
86 |
||
|
New York |
83 |
79 |
8 |
701 |
685 |
72.5 |
Over |
|
|
Washington |
81 |
81 |
10 |
702 |
702 |
85 |
||
|
Atlanta |
80 |
82 |
11 |
699 |
700 |
86.5 |
||
|
CENTRAL |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
St. Louis |
92 |
70 |
777 |
670 |
84.5 |
Over |
||
|
Milwaukee |
86 |
76 |
6 |
694 |
645 |
86.5 |
||
|
Cincinnati |
82 |
80 |
10 |
709 |
695 |
88 |
||
|
Chicago |
80 |
82 |
16 |
651 |
660 |
73.5 |
Over |
|
|
Pittsburgh |
73 |
89 |
19 |
658 |
729 |
74.5 |
||
|
Houston |
66 |
96 |
26 |
605 |
740 |
62.5 |
||
|
WEST |
W |
L |
GB |
RS |
RA |
Final o/u Line |
Pick |
|
|
Arizona |
81 |
81 |
700 |
703 |
86 |
|||
|
San Diego |
81 |
81 |
665 |
670 |
73.5 |
Over |
||
|
San Francisco |
79 |
83 |
2 |
673 |
698 |
88 |
Under |
|
|
Los Angeles |
74 |
88 |
7 |
634 |
693 |
81 |
Under |
|
|
Colorado |
73 |
89 |
8 |
698 |
778 |
81.5 |
Under |
|
Mop Up Duty:
Joe Peta is the author of Trading Bases, the Newsletter, a companion piece to Trading Bases, A Story about Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball* (*) Not necessarily in that order, a Dutton Books/Penguin (U.S.A.) February, 2013 release.
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