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Wednesday
Apr042012

2012 Preview: Final Projected Standings

 

Final 2012 Projected Standings

Dateline: Las Vegas.

Coming to you live from the LVH, the hotel formerly known as the Las Vegas Hilton, I give you a finalized look at the projected standings for MLB’s 2012 season.  The over/under column reflects the current (and presumably final) market on the eve of Opening Day, as posted at the LVH, the epicenter of baseball betting in Las Vegas.  (Those interested in the details of market making, note that the total wins for all teams total 2,450 ½.  That’s notable because there are only 2,430 games played in an MLB season.  I asked LVH’s management about this and they told me that the inflated total reflects the predominance of “over” bets they’ve taken this spring.  As in the stock market, people are predisposed to be optimistic.  Unlike the stock market though, there is no intrinsic reason for the participants to be collectively optimistic.  Nothing changes the fact that there are only 2,430 wins to be had.  As such, by default, there is value on the unders.)

When I was in 5th grade, the local paper in West Chester, PA printed an NFL preview piece with a predicted record for each team.  Being a sports-obsessed adolescent, I copied the projected standings down and hung them on a wall in my bedroom.  As I copied the previews into a notebook, I noticed that the total wins for all the NFL teams didn’t equal total losses.  I figured this had to be a mistake so I wrote a letter to the newspaper pointing out the discrepancy.

There were two unsurprising footnotes to that story.  One, I never got a response from the newspaper and two, I majored in accounting and became a Certified Public Accountant upon graduation.

Since I don’t want to be called out by a teenager, in compiling the final projected standings below, I have ensured that total wins equal total losses and total runs scored equal total runs allowed.  Any modifications to the original essays are the result of injuries suffered in Spring Training, roster changes, or any other developments which could affect playing time.  For instance, a change to the Phillies’ runs scored due to an injury to Chase Utley, needs to flow through the rest of the league’s runs allowed calculation.  Otherwise there were no changes to the calculations or the underlying logic.

This concludes the preview of the 2012 season.  Tomorrow I’ll relay some thoughts on Opening Day and then return a couple of times a month with updates as the season progresses.

Projected 2012 Standings

 
                 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

           

EAST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Boston

 

92

70

 

784

679

88.5

 

New York

 

90

72

2

811

717

93

 

Tampa Bay

 

81

81

11

718

723

88

Under

Toronto

 

80

82

12

703

710

83

 

Baltimore

 

71

91

21

692

796

69

 
                 

CENTRAL

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Detroit

 

86

76

 

747

700

93

Under

Cleveland

 

82

80

4

719

708

78.5

 

Chicago

 

82

80

4

662

657

75

Over

Minnesota

 

78

84

8

681

711

73.5

 

Kansas City

 

70

92

16

658

764

79

Under

                 

WEST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Los Angeles

91

71

 

770

675

93

 

Texas

 

88

74

3

767

700

92

 

Oakland

 

79

83

12

680

701

71.5

Over

Seattle

 

74

88

17

662

725

72

 
                 
                 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

           

EAST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Philadelphia

91

71

 

696

610

92

 

Miami

 

84

78

7

747

717

86

 

New York

 

83

79

8

701

685

72.5

Over

Washington

81

81

10

702

702

85

 

Atlanta

 

80

82

11

699

700

86.5

 
                 

CENTRAL

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

St. Louis

 

92

70

 

777

670

84.5

Over

Milwaukee

 

86

76

6

694

645

86.5

 

Cincinnati

 

82

80

10

709

695

88

 

Chicago

 

80

82

16

651

660

73.5

Over

Pittsburgh

 

73

89

19

658

729

74.5

 

Houston

 

66

96

26

605

740

62.5

 
                 

WEST

 

W

L

GB

RS

RA

Final o/u Line

Pick

Arizona

 

81

81

 

700

703

86

 

San Diego

 

81

81

 

665

670

73.5

Over

San Francisco

79

83

2

673

698

88

Under

Los Angeles

74

88

7

634

693

81

Under

Colorado

 

73

89

8

698

778

81.5

Under

 

Mop Up Duty:

Joe Peta is the author of Trading Bases, the Newsletter, a companion piece to Trading Bases, A Story about Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball*  (*) Not necessarily in that order, a Dutton Books/Penguin (U.S.A.) February, 2013 release.

If you have been forwarded this issue and would like to be placed on the mailing list, please send an e-mail to tradingbases@gmail.com

All newsletter archives are located at http://tradingbases.squarespace.com

You can follow me on Twitter here:  @MagicRatSF

I will be updating progress on the path to publication on Facebook as well where I can be found here: http://www.facebook.com/#!/profile.php?id=1761681056

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Reader Comments (3)

So, we won't have a team with more than 100 loses? Wow.

April 5, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoberto

We probably will - these are central projections and we have teams projected for 91, 92 & 96, as well as a couple of 89s. Random variation would lead us to expect one of these teams to undershoot significantly.

Thanks for the excellent previews, Joe - it's been a great series.

April 6, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterAB

if I get time ,would like to travel there

April 7, 2012 | Unregistered Commentercherish

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